Figuring out which players in the draft will develop into rotation guys or stars is difficult. It gets even more difficult when players and their agents (mainly the agents) decide they are going to tell teams where they don't want to play. This problem is one that hits home in Milwaukee.
Milwaukee is not a big market. This is news to no one. It's the 33 (or so) largest market in the country, but that puts them into the bottom third of the NBA spectrum. So it is understandable why agents have reservations about sending their clients here. And from the players perspective, I could see why one would do whatever he could to avoid coming to Milwaukee. It is going to be freezing cold for virtually the entire season and pile about 100 inches of snow on that fact. The women of Milwaukee have been growing up eating brats and drinking beer since they turned 18 which has turned the large majority of them into...men. At least man sized. And the locals don't especially care for a bad NBA team. So not a lot of pluses.
That would explain the Yi Jianlian fiasco in 2006. The Bucks pretty much had to take Yi. They had to prove they would not be manipulated by agents or anyone else trying to pressure them into something. The market aspect combined with the lack of a large Chinese population was obviously a big deal then. Did it factor into Yi being traded? Probably. But it was a lot easier to trade Yi once the organization realized that he wasn't very good and was probably 25 years old without a lot of upside. (I'd like to make clear though that the Bucks were much better off making that trade than not. Without that deal the Bucks would have won 22 games last year and the culture in the locker room would still be terrible. There would once again be no hope for next season either. Charlie Villanueva would never have gotten better and it would likely have trickled down throughout the team. So yeah, it was a good basketball decision.) Would they have kept Yi if he were a good player? Tough to say. The Bucks could be faced with a similar situation this year.
In my second look at how past drafts could impact this year's draft for the Bucks I can't help but compare the Yi Jianlian fiasco to Brandon Jennings.
Most mock drafts I've looked at have Brandon Jennings falling anywhere from fourth to the Kings to seventh to Golden State. He'll likely be gone by the time the Bucks pick. But what if Jennings fell a little in workouts? What if character issues or injury concerns push him back and he's available at number ten? Would the Bucks take him? The folks at RealGM have Jennings dropping to the Bucks at ten, so who really knows what is going to happen.
But how would Team Jennings feel about dropping to Milwaukee? When I say Team Jennings I'm speaking primarily about Jennings agent and the folks at Under Armour. To say they have a lot invested in the career of Jennings would be an understatement. They have built their entire basketball related future on his career. The last thing Under Armour wants to have happen is for him to end up in Milwaukee. Sacramento? Probably not. Minnesota? Pass. They are looking for Golden State, D.C., or New York as the best case scenarios for teams in the top ten. New York would obviously be great from not only a media standpoint, but then he'd get to work with Mike D'Antoni, a European type coach who can transform point guards into point gods. The thing about Jennings is that he probably could just go back to Europe for another year or two, or at least hold it out there as a threat.
The problem for the small market teams is that Jennings might be really good. I mean REALLY good. The only time I've seen him play was at the McDonald's All-American game a couple years back and he looked like the next big thing at point guard. I realize that I was watching a glorified pick up game, but what struck me is that all he was concerned about was setting the assist record. Any time a point guard wants to be known as a passer it means one of two things, either he is a jacker trying to fool scouts and fans alike, or he really loves the feeling of setting other guys up. I'm leaning towards the latter, only because of how natural he looked in setting up his teammates.
As for the whole Italy thing, I'm into that too. To be a point guard you need to be ballsy. Moving to Europe when you can't get into college...that is ballsy. His European stats don't mean all that much to me. Talk about a period of adjustment, wow. He had so much going on that performing in games was probably pretty difficult. But he probably learned more in practicing every day over there like a professional than he ever could have wasting away with that clown of a coach they had at Arizona this year. He couldn't even get his guys to foul at the right time.
So while I'd love to have Brandon Jennings further develop himself as a star point guard and pitchman in Milwaukee, I'm realistic. The folks at Under Armour will probably not allow it. Hopefully for Jennings sake they steer him towards somewhere warm at least.
Showing posts with label Yi Jianlian. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Yi Jianlian. Show all posts
Thursday, May 21, 2009
Sunday, January 4, 2009
How the Bucks Came to Be Irrelevant...A Two Part Series
Part 1
The Inexact Science of the NBA Draft
Oldest Teams in the NBA (As of Opening Day)
1. Spurs
2. New Orleans
3. Denver
4. Dallas
5. Houston
6. Milwaukee
This is a very telling statistic. With the exception of Dallas, who traded Devin Harris I remind you, every team ahead of Milwaukee will make noise in the playoffs this year. They have been building their teams for years, using wise draft decisions and smart free agent pickups to bolster their respective lineups. The Bucks are out of place in this group. They are a team rebuilding and trying to change their style. While they have made great strides this year on both sides of the ball, they have another year or two of smart decision making before they will be ready to reenter the atmosphere of playoff success. With no success achieved in the past 6 years, how have the Bucks become one of the oldest teams in the league?
Answer: Dismal draft picks. And it is those picks, not their ill advised free agent spending sprees that have left the Bucks on the outside looking in over the past 6 years. First round draft mistakes, by both Ernie Grunfeld and Larry Harris, have proven to be difficult for a team that will never be a major player for free agents to overcome. Since 2003, the Bucks have not been a better than average basketball team, ideally leaving them with a plethora of draft picks to increase their depth and re-energize the franchise. Let’s take a look at what exactly the Bucks have done with their draft picks since 2003.
2003 Draft
8. TJ Ford
Sadly, TJ Ford was probably the best selection that the Bucks have made in the past 10 years. I rank him higher than Bogut only because they showed courage and home run capability with this pick. Ford had a huge upside coming out of college after being named Naismith Player of the Year. The knock on Ford was that his slight stature would lead to injuries and word of a possible spinal cord problem...which all came to fruition on February 25th of his rookie year when he bruised his spinal cord. Ford continued to struggle with health problems, and he now appears to have a severe mental problem; he thinks he is a man with a jump shot. Reggie Miller he is not.
2004 Draft
No Picks
Surely the Bucks gave up 2 picks in this draft with good reason right? Right??? Not so much. Shortly before the 2001-2002 season, also known as The Anthony Mason Debacle, to make room for everyone’s favorite point forward, the Bucks shipped off lovable forward Scott Williams and a conditional first round pick which ended up being this one. In return, the Bucks got legendary Ohio State center Aleksander Radojevic and a 2002 second round pick which resulted in Dan Gadzuric. This obviously could not have worked out any worse as Anthony Mason proved to be a more destructive force than 90% of the natural disasters I have ever heard of. To make things a little bit worse, this pick was used on Josh Smith. Whoops. They were able to pry away promising big man Zaza Pachulia with their second round pick via the Bobcats. But he was allowed to walk during the legendary week in August of 2005 when the Larry Harris did everything he could to ruin their future cap flexibility...and then was given an extention and raise. Yikes.
2005 Draft
1. Andrew Bogut
Bogut was the safe choice. For everything Chris Paul and to a lesser extent Deron Williams have gone on to do since this draft, the choice was really between Andrew Bogut and Marvin Williams. TJ Ford was still seen as the point guard of the future and Mo Williams had proven to be a more than capable backup. Marvin Williams had tantalizing potential, but it seemed that he was a few years away from being the player they needed. The theory at the time (and maybe still??) Is that a player as talented as Bogut with that much size cannot be passed on. Bogut has gone on to a solid and still promising career. As a pick at the time it did not have the ceiling of the other players although would provide much quicker results, and with the ship sinking a little more each year, that was what appealed to the Bucks in the end.
2006 Draft
No First Round Pick
This pick was dumped along with Desmond Mason for Jamal Magloire so the Bucks could clear up the logjam they had mysteriously created at small forward. Of course this came weeks after Larry Harris had assured Mason he was not being shopped and months after telling coach Terry Porter, "We’re going to sink or swim together on this." Porter was of course fired less than a month later. But hey, when a Terry Stotts becomes available, moves need to be made. This pick can be chalked up as another casualty of the Summer of 2005.
2007 Draft
6. Yi Jianlian
Can we just forget this whole thing happened? The Bucks left at least 3 future all stars on the board to take a guy who did not want to play here, whose agents did not want him here, whose family did not want him here, whose WHOLE COUNTRY DID NOT WANT HIM HERE!! This was an act of complete arrogance. Picking Yi was like throwing a middle finger up at all Bucks fans, and that is before even discussing that he was 3 years older than he claimed to be. Sorry Bucks fans, no Brandon Wright, no Thaddeus Young, no Rodney Stuckey, just Easy Yi. The only thing Yi will be remembered for, aside from making the whole Bucks delegation fly to China to beg him to show up and not embarrass them, will be that he was the vehicle which took away the awfulness known as Bobby Simmons.
2008 Draft
8. Joe Alexander
"Joey" doesn’t look so promising as of yet, but judgment must be withheld on him. It takes at least a season to see what a team really has with someone they drafted, although it does appear that Luc Richard Mbah ah Moute has kept alive the Bucks tradition of finding gems in round 2, as he has already become the Bucks primary defensive stopper. I do realize that the Bucks have had unusual success in the second round of many of these drafts, appearing to target players who have the work ethic to succeed in unlikely scenarios. Michael Redd, Dan Gadzuric, Flip Murray, and now Ramon Sessions, all were great finds in round 2. But for a team to truly pull themselves out of the depths of the league, they have to hit home runs in round 1. Portland landed Brandon Roy, Lamarcus Aldridge, Martell Webster, Travis Outlaw and famously Greg Oden in either draft day deals or smart early round choices. These are the kinds of guys the Bucks have not been securing.
John Hammond has a very strong track record going back to strong drafts when he worked with the Clippers of the early 2000s. The Bucks have a track record just as strong against drafting anyone with superstar potential, so something will have to give.Part Two will focus largely on the Summer of 2005, why the Bucks are where they are now, and what they can do to regain credibility in the NBA again.
The Inexact Science of the NBA Draft
Oldest Teams in the NBA (As of Opening Day)
1. Spurs
2. New Orleans
3. Denver
4. Dallas
5. Houston
6. Milwaukee
This is a very telling statistic. With the exception of Dallas, who traded Devin Harris I remind you, every team ahead of Milwaukee will make noise in the playoffs this year. They have been building their teams for years, using wise draft decisions and smart free agent pickups to bolster their respective lineups. The Bucks are out of place in this group. They are a team rebuilding and trying to change their style. While they have made great strides this year on both sides of the ball, they have another year or two of smart decision making before they will be ready to reenter the atmosphere of playoff success. With no success achieved in the past 6 years, how have the Bucks become one of the oldest teams in the league?
Answer: Dismal draft picks. And it is those picks, not their ill advised free agent spending sprees that have left the Bucks on the outside looking in over the past 6 years. First round draft mistakes, by both Ernie Grunfeld and Larry Harris, have proven to be difficult for a team that will never be a major player for free agents to overcome. Since 2003, the Bucks have not been a better than average basketball team, ideally leaving them with a plethora of draft picks to increase their depth and re-energize the franchise. Let’s take a look at what exactly the Bucks have done with their draft picks since 2003.
2003 Draft
8. TJ Ford
Sadly, TJ Ford was probably the best selection that the Bucks have made in the past 10 years. I rank him higher than Bogut only because they showed courage and home run capability with this pick. Ford had a huge upside coming out of college after being named Naismith Player of the Year. The knock on Ford was that his slight stature would lead to injuries and word of a possible spinal cord problem...which all came to fruition on February 25th of his rookie year when he bruised his spinal cord. Ford continued to struggle with health problems, and he now appears to have a severe mental problem; he thinks he is a man with a jump shot. Reggie Miller he is not.
2004 Draft
No Picks
Surely the Bucks gave up 2 picks in this draft with good reason right? Right??? Not so much. Shortly before the 2001-2002 season, also known as The Anthony Mason Debacle, to make room for everyone’s favorite point forward, the Bucks shipped off lovable forward Scott Williams and a conditional first round pick which ended up being this one. In return, the Bucks got legendary Ohio State center Aleksander Radojevic and a 2002 second round pick which resulted in Dan Gadzuric. This obviously could not have worked out any worse as Anthony Mason proved to be a more destructive force than 90% of the natural disasters I have ever heard of. To make things a little bit worse, this pick was used on Josh Smith. Whoops. They were able to pry away promising big man Zaza Pachulia with their second round pick via the Bobcats. But he was allowed to walk during the legendary week in August of 2005 when the Larry Harris did everything he could to ruin their future cap flexibility...and then was given an extention and raise. Yikes.
2005 Draft
1. Andrew Bogut
Bogut was the safe choice. For everything Chris Paul and to a lesser extent Deron Williams have gone on to do since this draft, the choice was really between Andrew Bogut and Marvin Williams. TJ Ford was still seen as the point guard of the future and Mo Williams had proven to be a more than capable backup. Marvin Williams had tantalizing potential, but it seemed that he was a few years away from being the player they needed. The theory at the time (and maybe still??) Is that a player as talented as Bogut with that much size cannot be passed on. Bogut has gone on to a solid and still promising career. As a pick at the time it did not have the ceiling of the other players although would provide much quicker results, and with the ship sinking a little more each year, that was what appealed to the Bucks in the end.
2006 Draft
No First Round Pick
This pick was dumped along with Desmond Mason for Jamal Magloire so the Bucks could clear up the logjam they had mysteriously created at small forward. Of course this came weeks after Larry Harris had assured Mason he was not being shopped and months after telling coach Terry Porter, "We’re going to sink or swim together on this." Porter was of course fired less than a month later. But hey, when a Terry Stotts becomes available, moves need to be made. This pick can be chalked up as another casualty of the Summer of 2005.
2007 Draft
6. Yi Jianlian
Can we just forget this whole thing happened? The Bucks left at least 3 future all stars on the board to take a guy who did not want to play here, whose agents did not want him here, whose family did not want him here, whose WHOLE COUNTRY DID NOT WANT HIM HERE!! This was an act of complete arrogance. Picking Yi was like throwing a middle finger up at all Bucks fans, and that is before even discussing that he was 3 years older than he claimed to be. Sorry Bucks fans, no Brandon Wright, no Thaddeus Young, no Rodney Stuckey, just Easy Yi. The only thing Yi will be remembered for, aside from making the whole Bucks delegation fly to China to beg him to show up and not embarrass them, will be that he was the vehicle which took away the awfulness known as Bobby Simmons.
2008 Draft
8. Joe Alexander
"Joey" doesn’t look so promising as of yet, but judgment must be withheld on him. It takes at least a season to see what a team really has with someone they drafted, although it does appear that Luc Richard Mbah ah Moute has kept alive the Bucks tradition of finding gems in round 2, as he has already become the Bucks primary defensive stopper. I do realize that the Bucks have had unusual success in the second round of many of these drafts, appearing to target players who have the work ethic to succeed in unlikely scenarios. Michael Redd, Dan Gadzuric, Flip Murray, and now Ramon Sessions, all were great finds in round 2. But for a team to truly pull themselves out of the depths of the league, they have to hit home runs in round 1. Portland landed Brandon Roy, Lamarcus Aldridge, Martell Webster, Travis Outlaw and famously Greg Oden in either draft day deals or smart early round choices. These are the kinds of guys the Bucks have not been securing.
John Hammond has a very strong track record going back to strong drafts when he worked with the Clippers of the early 2000s. The Bucks have a track record just as strong against drafting anyone with superstar potential, so something will have to give.Part Two will focus largely on the Summer of 2005, why the Bucks are where they are now, and what they can do to regain credibility in the NBA again.
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